Gun Sales Continued 2025 Downturn in May: Market Correction or Long-Term Shift?
Gun Sales Continued 2025 Downturn in May as new data from the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) confirmed another month of lower firearm-related background checks. The NSSF reported a 1.6% year-over-year drop in May, with approximately 1.071 million background checks processed through the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), compared to 1.089 million in May 2024.
This makes May 2025 the lowest month for gun sales since May 2019 and adds to a trend of stagnation that has marked the year thus far. In fact, the first quarter of 2025 was the worst-performing quarter in the past five years for firearm transactions.
While at first glance, this might seem like bad news for the gun industry, experts say it reflects a broader reversion to the mean after years of historic highs. The record-setting surges of 2020 through 2022—driven by pandemic fears, civil unrest, and political uncertainty—created an unusual sales climate that was never meant to last. What we are seeing now is more of a market correction than a crisis.
The slowdown isn’t entirely unexpected. Like most retail sectors, the firearms market experiences cyclical ups and downs influenced by economic trends, political leadership, and cultural sentiments. When tensions run high and uncertainty looms, gun sales spike. When those tensions ease, purchasing slows down.
Changing Political Climate Has Eased Consumer Urgency
Another significant factor contributing to the decline is the shift in Washington, D.C. in 2025. The Biden-era policies, especially the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives’ (ATF) strict enforcement and its widely criticized “zero-tolerance” policy, put both retailers and consumers on edge.
That policy led to the revocation of dozens of federal firearms licenses (FFLs) over minor paperwork errors, creating a chilling effect on lawful sales. With the overhaul of the ATF and the rollback of these aggressive enforcement tactics, the pressure on both gun dealers and buyers has lessened considerably.
Now that the ATF’s most burdensome regulations have been scrapped, retailers feel more confident in conducting business without fear of politically motivated crackdowns. Purchasers, in turn, no longer feel like their ability to legally own or transfer firearms is under immediate threat. The urgency that once drove panic-buying behavior has subsided.
Still, this doesn’t mean interest in firearms has disappeared. Millions of Americans—many of them first-time buyers—purchased guns over the past few years for self-defense, sport shooting, and hunting. That initial wave has saturated the market to some extent, meaning that those who wanted a gun likely already bought one.
This demographic shift is crucial. Gun ownership is no longer confined to a specific profile. Women, minorities, and younger Americans are increasingly represented among new firearm owners, expanding the industry’s consumer base in the long run. Even as monthly sales decline, the cultural normalization of firearms continues to strengthen Second Amendment support.
Looking Ahead: Normal Doesn’t Mean Negative
Though Gun Sales Continued 2025 Downturn in May, industry analysts don’t see this as a signal of long-term decline. Instead, they view it as a return to “normal”—a market free from the spikes caused by fear and crisis.
Manufacturers and retailers are adjusting to this new reality by focusing on innovation, customer education, and community engagement rather than relying on panic-driven sales. Programs that emphasize responsible ownership, concealed carry training, and sporting applications of firearms are helping keep interest alive.
In the end, the dip in sales may actually be a sign of a healthier, more stable market. Firearm ownership isn’t going away—it’s just evolving. And with the pressure off for now, Americans can continue to exercise their rights without fear, hype, or overreaction.
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